![]() If Ignacio passes over the islands, it will be a rare event, indeed. Storms that have passed right over the island are typically tropical storms and depressions. Below are the tracks that have etched themselves on the last 60 years of Hawaiian history. Eastern Pacific hurricanes hitting Hawaii are rare, though Hawaii does have a history of hurricane damage. Today, Hawaii is in the “Cone of Uncertainty” for Hurricane Ignacio, which might reach Category 3. If underwriters in Florida forget Dora, Erika might be quite a reminder next week. Using claims data or experience alone to rate risk of storm surge or wind damage is limiting – because rare hurricane events do happen, like Dora.Īs private flood insurance continues to permeate the Florida market, creating conversations like this, insurers need data and analytics that address both those facts.There are higher risk areas, and there are lower risk areas. The whole coast is definitely not exposed to the same probability (or frequency) of getting hit by a hurricane.I have reached two conclusions while looking into the frequency of hurricanes hitting different coastal regions: Well, Hurricane Erika is bearing down on Florida now, and Jacksonville is in the “Cone of Uncertainty.” Could it really hit the city? The Weather Channel says it’s possible. But, the accepted logic states that Jacksonville doesn’t get hit by hurricanes – Dora being the exception. Now, there are well over a million people living around Jax. In 1964, Jacksonville had about 450,000 residents and the surrounding counties another 80,000 or so. Needless to say, something like Dora would be a much bigger deal if it were to strike nowadays. In fact, if it were not the only one to hit Jacksonville, it would be even more obscure. She was an ordinary hurricane in Floridian history: damages were heavy yet there were no fatalities. Hurricane Dora was a borderline Cat 2 / Cat 3 storm that hit the city in 1964. One of those nuggets is the fact that Jacksonville doesn’t get hit with hurricanes – which is especially interesting since last year was the 50th anniversary of Dora, the only recorded hurricane to hit the city. Some places get nailed a lot, and some rarely get hit. The variability of the frequency of hurricane strikes along the coast is surprising. Residents living along the coast are being still warned that Dora is likely “to produce life-threatening surf & rip currents” in southwest Mexico and Baja California Sur.Recently I’ve been researching where hurricanes have historically made landfall in the southeastern United States, and I have found little nuggets of wisdom that help drive underwriting in Florida. Hurricane Dora could begin to diminish back into a tropical storm by Tuesday evening as its passes west of Guadalajara and Manzanillo. No hurricane warnings or watches are being put into effect in Mexico.ħ.10am CDT: The NHC is forecasting that Dora will take a curved path westwards into the Pacific Ocean, peaking at around 2am CDT on Tuesday. One to two inches of rainfall are expected along the coast of Mexico.ħ.13am CDT: Hurricane Dora will not pose a threat to mainland America, according to the NHC.Located 255 miles (415km) south of Cabo Corrientes. ![]() Located 170 miles (275 km) south-southwest from Manzanillo.Latest figures on Hurricane Dora recored by the NHC at 10am CDT: “Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130km),” the NHC said.ĭora is now 175 miles (285km) southwest of Manzanillo and 220 miles (250km) Cabo Corrientes. The sustained winds have now picked up to 85mph (140kmh) and the hurricane is still heading west-northwest. 10.15am CDT: Hurricane Dora is continuing to strengthen, but the brunt of the storm will stay “well away from the coast of southwestern Mexico”, according to the NHC’s Public Advisory Notes at 10am CDT.
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